Decision for Roll over - Sample NVDA 209.680 +5.05%

 My question "today 25 April 2026, NVDA price at 210.360 after a rise on 5.38% from previous day. I bought Iron condor on expiration date 5 June 2026, priced -0.60 IV=38, with iron condor combi 155/160/240/245, today the iron condor price aT -0.93. Should i exit or roll the Call side iron condor? what is the usual adjustment plan should go for? after losing 100% or 50% of the investment?" 

someone answer me this "Given your NVDA iron condor setup — strikes 155/160 (put side) and 240/245 (call side), expiring 5 June 2026, now priced at –0.93 versus your entry at –0.60 (a ~55 % unrealized loss) and a strong upward move in NVDA to 210.36 (+5.38 %), here’s how to think about next steps: Assess where the risk is Current price 210.36 is ~$30 below your call short strike (240). → The condor is not yet tested, though momentum is upward. → The loss mainly reflects implied volatility expansion (IV 38%) and market drift, not a direct strike threat yet. Delta on the short call (240) is likely still under 0.20, so the position is uncomfortable but not broken. Adjustment triggers from professional frameworks From well‑tested rules ( theoptionpremium.com , flyonthewall.ai , quantstrategy.io ): Condition Typical Action Short strike Δ ≈ 0.30–0.35 or price within 3 % of it Prepare to adjust the tested side Position down ~50 % of collected credit Begin evaluating exit or roll Price breaches short strike or loss > 100 % of credit Close the tested side or whole trade Since you’re down ~55 % of collected credit and not near the short strike, this is a watch-and-evaluate stage, not a roll or emergency. Choices now A. Hold and monitor Price is closer to midpoint than to the upper wing. If NVDA stalls or mean‑reverts, theta will work in your favor. Set alert if NVDA hits ~230–234 (≈ 3 %–5 % below your 240 short). That’s the usual “trigger zone” to adjust. B. Defensive call‑side roll (only if price continues rising) If NVDA approaches 235–240 and your short call Δ > 0.30: Roll up and out in time — close 240/245; sell 250/255 or 255/260 in a later expiry (e.g., June 12 or June 19), ideally for net credit. Or close tested side early — buy back only the call spread, retain the put side to keep theta from that winner. Avoid rolling for a debit; that just adds risk without time advantage. C. Full exit If the total debit doubles (e.g., above –1.20 given your entry –0.60), or NVDA decisively breaches 240, close the whole trade and preserve capital for redeployment. That’s effectively a 100 % loss of your original credit, which is a standard max‑loss cutoff. Practical rule of thumb Most disciplined traders: Act at 50 % loss if delta or price confirms pressure (strike test). Wait but watch closely if loss is near 50 % with no strike test yet (your case). Exit fully before 100 % loss or if adjustment would require a debit or adds risk. Summary At today’s levels (210 vs 240 strike, –55 % mark‑to‑market), your iron condor is still in range. No immediate roll is needed unless momentum continues upward or short‑call delta exceeds ~0.30. Set alerts near 230–235; plan to adjust or close if NVDA reaches your 240 short strike or trade value hits –1.20." Is this correct way to roll now? or wait?

Iron Condor Adjustment Decision Tree

Start: Current position check

• NVDA price = 210.36

• Short call strike = 240

• Current loss ≈ 55% of credit

1. Is the short strike tested?

• Price within 3–5% of short strike (≈230–235)?

  • Yes → Go to Step 2

  • No → Hold & Monitor

2. Is short call delta ≥ 0.30?

• Yes → Consider adjustment

  • Roll call spread up/out (e.g., 250/255 in later expiry) for credit

  • Or close call side, keep put side

• No → Continue monitoring

3. Loss threshold check

• Loss ≥ 50% of credit?

  • If strike not tested → Watch closely, no immediate roll

  • If strike tested → Adjust or exit tested side

• Loss ≥ 100% of credit (≈–1.20)?

  • Close entire trade (max loss cutoff)

4. Exit triggers

• Underlying breaches short strike (240) → Close or roll tested side immediately

• Adjustment requires debit → Avoid; better to exit than add risk

✅ Summary Rules

• <50% loss, not tested: Hold

• ≈50% loss, strike pressure: Adjust

• ≥100% loss or breach: Exit

Thx ai

Lessen 1 on Iron Condor, IV crush

 

5) Positioning unwind = extra IV crush

Into the event:

• Traders buy options (hedging war risk)
• Market makers price in premium

After ceasefire:

• Hedges get closed
• Demand for options drops

👉 IV falls fast (sometimes violently)

This is exactly what traders call:
“vol crush event”

6) Why it feels wrong (but isn’t)

You expected:

War → high IV

But reality:

• Peak IV happens BEFORE resolution
• Lowest IV often happens RIGHT AFTER resolution

Bottom line

Your NVDA IV Rank is ~1 because:

1. War uncertainty was already priced earlier
2. Ceasefire removed tail risk → IV collapsed
3. NVDA isn’t directly sensitive to war
4. IV Rank is relative to past spikes (earnings/AI mania)
5. Positioning unwind accelerated the drop
6. 
   

---Just a reminder

20250410 Trump Tariff Days again

Trump posted various tariff rate on item/product they import into thee State, effectively called import tax, if you may. The intention is to increase the price of import product and to encourage locals to buy their local product. The lesser spending on those imports, the more USD is kept within the country.

On 8th April, US say to increase Tariff on China import for 104%

On 9th April, China intend to increase the Tariff for US product to 84% 

On 10th April, Trump announce a 90 Days Delays on it plan Tariff on all the countries involves, but remain 10% on the Tariff for those countries. 

Excluding Canada, Mexico to remain on the previous announced Tariff. However, China Product to b increase to massive 125%. And a correction is made on the later of the same day.

From CNN news, since 2018, China has been reducing their volume to US from 20% to currently 15% of their overall export for the country.

Anyway, my guess on the end game of this approach will end with a final rate for most of the countries with reducing the discounted Counter Tariff of 50% into 25%. Which is to cut another half of what he initially plan. He would has concern on the local demand for import product and the pressure of the local GDP and incoming high degree of inflation. Without more measure to increase local spending power, the current government will go no way but failed to gain the confident of the country.

What will likely to happened next?

Stage 1

- Their current Local available import product will be reducing without proper stock pile

- Example 1, Tesla and iPhone price would increase from 30% to 60%. This is to factor in that these companies will put up some measurement and alignment to flip flop on their current ecosystem to somewhat reduce China made item into their product. By moving part and factory production back to US

- Example 2, Nike - Price to be increase, so they would stock pile stock from now on and hopefully whatever nightmare gonna happened it would happen after 90Days(the delay)+60Day(the stock pile)

Stage 2

The discounted Counter Tariff of 50% will be cut off another 50% or 70%. Which would give us a chart of Tariff charges ranging from 10%(starting with Singapore) to 22%(Vietnam, Myanmar), and this is still depends if the country would contribute some form of compensate to the State. And the likely to in in a form of investment into the State, buying USD Bond to support US, or to give a piece of land for their free trade(which is unlikely but possible). And maybe CO-Tax rebate on the tax that US company pay to the target country(not sure if this is possible)

Having say that, Stage 2 is where would start to see the impact of his Arm muscle with other countries, and this is where he would see more Cash flowing in for his Government.

China might end up with 20% to 32% Tariff charge at this stage, he would loss a lot of voter if anything more than this Tariff rate. Whatever impose to China would not be too high as this is to factor in China +1 effect to spillover to more countries

Before Stage 2 start, he might announce some form of Cash support for below Bottom 40% of US citizen, and this it to increase their purchasing power. There might be a program to have getting them to receive the extra for a 6month to 10months.

Stage 3 would be the time to revise the effectiveness of this Trade war. However, he might not survive to Stage 2 if he play the Tariff Card wrongly. Any countries that has 20% Tariff charge would be a very unlucky country as they could basically forget about exporting goods to US.

Of course, if he could survive his first 60%. today 10% 90day delay and 10% tariff is a good chess move which give a head turn to many investor and create a temporary Safe Heaven to readjust their strategy to jump into this hot water.

Okay, is time to rethink what Smart Money is, and what is Zero risk investment. 

CashOut, go to Bond.... to accumulate wealth, please...

2025 0404 Trump Tariff Day, MBI

Reminder to not enter MBI related counter. Their PER are very attractive thou, what are they doing here?

Mayu Global RM0.20, PER 4.42, Div 0%, CAP91.73mil

HHRG RM0.12, PER 10.33, Div 0%CAP 110.57mil

TGlobal, RM0.32, PER6.65, Div 0%< CAP RM299.08mil

This counter is in high debt situation and utmost importantly, AMLA candal it ex CEO who is just resigned. Market half on it opening day after raya

Although it has just announce a new renewal contract with Petronas, but ut doesnt stop the bloodshed.

I might go for it WC (end in 2027) or WD (end in 2030). Both price at 0.06, monday i might queue at 0.04 for RM5k. The main counter can go at 0.30 for RM4k. Maybe?

EGG counters, 

Leong Hup-LHI RM0.62, PER 5.23, Div4.47% CAP 2.23 Bil

CAB Cakaran RM0.50, PER5.5, Div2% CAP 347.44mil

TPC RM0.29 PER 4.89, Cap 89mil, Div6.9

I only take 3 low per counter and made simple comparison. Where LHI is seems to be stronger in it YR and QR by comparing their earning ratio and steady flow. However, Y2024 need to normalise it earning by pairing down abt 5-10%, which is given by USD depreciation on the same year.

I am only checking on low PER counters where they are currently at PER 5.4, 5.32 and 8.31.

LHI seems to have strong reading in it YR and QR, do aware on the normalise earning which will pair down on Y2024 due to changes in USD depreciation

Centur

5th Nov 2024 Paragon Union, , bumiputra allocation of 12.5% in ACE market

Paragon Union, RM3.00, PER 24.19, market cap 251.49Mil

Paragon has proposed to buy 51% stake of Metahub industries Sdn Bhd at RM45.10 million with 17.29mil of paragon share. Paragon is a carpet maker for automotive and commercial market and started metal recycling business in 2022, recycled metal trading in 2023.

Metahub has 2 majors business segment namely 1.waster water processing, 2.process recycled metal. They collect electronic scrap from electronic company and process aluminium, copper, tin and nickel by melting the scraps.

I might want to enter when Paragon get to RM2.85, which I suspect what they will do. Come come

2024 2nd Oct. SCGBHD, CapialA, Kitacon, TANCO, Feytech, NVDA, ARM, AMD

Feytech 0.63, YTD eps at 7.92, YTD PER at 7.95. High chance to get another 2 to added as 9.92 which could translate to 6.35 PER. Of course this is too optimistic and provided next Q report is not negative. Latest Malaysia buget announcement has raise minimum wages, this has deeply concerning to msia market. I bought at 0.725 for 1st entry, it seems to be like a dropping knife so far. I would in again if it hit to 0.545, maybe. However, it is still a good counter, we might want to wait for a dividend announcement, else. Probably should exit, this is a test on the promises the board has made.

SCGBHD, there seems to have a comeback on this counter. But the price dilution might still be worrying, might want to trigger a few round of pump and dump to reduce my entry on this counter.

Kitacon, I could foresee this countrr might meet a near 0.82 to 0.85 by yearend. This company has source in sub-construction projects from big company. The fundamentals is strong for this counter. I did an entry on 0.73, i might want to get in at 0.695 or below, 0.66 entry would have been sweet.  Both Feytech and Kitacon have been premature, i might want to factor in their actual dividend payout before there is a good entry. I went in on their recent low, but as we might know, low might has it new low, new low kight has their new low low. Bad entries for both.

CapitalA, sold all at a very low profit of mere lesser than RM1000 for at 15k entry. Excluded those exoted earlier. On the takeover of aviation sector by AAX, every 1000CapA share will be given 392 AAX share. However, AAX market cap will times few folds to accommodate that exchange. The takeover will include all the debt from CapA, which translate as AAX warrant. But what left in CapA? What will be the actual proce on the day of exchange happens? I see a deduction of -0.70 on each CapA shar4. And provided the core business for CapA is the maintenance, I doubt it will hold any value to it shareholder. Lets see how it go, -0.70 is abt 0.28 as per today value 

AAX,  what to do with this counter? There are some left here for their transition showdown, should I wait too.

NVDA, new heights at 143, i was waiting for any 150 close price to start a 1 year Put Option, but it never happened. Time to go for the DMA detail chart to hunt for a good entry. come come NVDA. Of course, it would be nice to check for option entry in ARM and AMD.

ARM, there should have been at leats a round of 5-8 unit share entry at 120, and aims for a 10%-20% earnings exit, my plan to increase the unit of share is by 50% with this pump and dump strategy. Okay, hack 5o the drawing boards 

20240917 Heitech

 Heitech HTPadu

Rumour on TheEdge has review that they have gotten NIISE project, which means they has bitten DNEX and ThetaEdge over the horse race.

At Friday, it stand at MYR2.3. NIISE is a 1Billion project. With ut current matket cap of 240million, this project could easily gave an extra market to it, which could go for 360mil to 400mi market cap. This could translate into share price of rm3.4 to 4.6

....The contract's duration will be 36 months from Oct 1, 2024 to Sept 30, 2027...

Is a no brainer to go in at RM2.30 to RM2.5

I went in at RM2.3, sold at rm2.85, okay i went out too prematurely, i was driving. 

It seems q official that HTPADU is taking the awards. But are they?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nst.com.my/amp/business/corporate/2024/09/1106872/heitech-padu-closes-six-month-high-news-possible-niise-project

Okay. Next